Alembic Global Advisors

Chemical Industry Reports

US Chemicals: USD strength not a huge concern

02/17/15 -

US Chemicals – USD strength not a huge concern

  • USD strength most negative for DOW, MEOH and PX; least for AXLL and WLK
  • See currency translation related earnings hits of 5-9% for coverage universe
  • Cost curve positioning should insulate US from meaningful trade flow changes

Summary

As the USD has recently strengthened relative to a basket of currencies – the BRL, EUR, SGD etc - investor attention has turned to companies with high sales exposure to these countries/regions in general and the EUR in particular or businesses that might see changing trade flow in an attempt to assess the negative earnings impact of these currency moves. Our analysis identifies CE, HUN, LYB, and DOW, in that order, as companies that have the highest European revenue exposure amongst our coverage universe but suggests EUR weakness related earnings downside may not be as significant as some may think at these names.

Conservatively assuming no y-o-y European volume growth in 2015 and a 15% y-o-y decline in the EUR relative to the USD – assuming the EUR stays at current levels through 2015 - points to 5-9% y-o-y EPS declines for the our coverage universe – not egregious in our view. Our analysis which takes into account each companies country and currency specific footprint points to the most negative impact at MEOH, DOW and PX in that order, assuming that the companies have minimal hedges in place in 2015. The least negative EPS impact is at the more US-centric AXLL and WLK.  

read more...


01/05/15      Industry Note
MENA Chemicals: Looking for value in 2015

11/17/14      Industry Note
US Chemicals: USD strength not a big concern

11/03/14      Industry Note
Gas monetization: Ethylene, GTL, LNG or Methanol

05/05/14      Industry Note
US Chemicals: Exaggerated ethane exports?

03/31/14      Industry Note
US Chemicals: Seasonal trade not that obvious

03/17/14      Industry Note
US Chemicals: Further consolidation in TiO2 land?

02/03/14      Industry Note
US Chemicals: Ethane price sizzle may soon fizzle

12/23/13      Industry Note
US Chemicals: Identifying the winners for 2014

12/16/13      Industry Note
Global Chemicals: TiO2 recovery well under way

10/14/13      Industry Note
US Chemicals: Justifiable outperformance in Q3'13

09/06/13      Industry Note
Higher C3 pricing here to stay

07/22/13      Industry Note
US Chemicals: Assessing the China impact

04/22/13      Industry Note
US Chemicals: Some valuation perspective

01/14/13       Industry Initiation
US Chemicals: NGL depression could linger

12/31/12      Industry Note
US Chemicals: Identifying the winners for 2013

09/10/12      Industry Note
Global Chemicals – The capital cost conundrum

06/11/12      Company Note
US Chemicals – Sifting through the rubble

05/09/12      Industry Note
Global TiO2 – Ilmenite not a party spoiler

04/16/12      Industry Note
US Chemicals – Consensus bar low for Q1’12

04/02/12      Industry Note
US Chemicals – To risk or de-risk?

01/16/12      Industry Note
US Chemicals – Propylene prices bottoming

01/04/12      Industry Note
MENA Chemicals – Identifying winners for 2012

12/05/11      Industry Note
Global Chemicals – How special are specialties?

10/24/11      Industry Note
US Chemicals – An ethane pricing bubble?

10/18/11      Industry Note
Global Chemicals – Expecting a decent quarter

09/30/11      Industry Note
US Chemicals – Have we hit a floor yet?

07/18/11      Industry Note
US Chemicals – Currency tailwinds ahead?

07/05/11      Industry Note
US Chemicals – Bottoming prices, rising shares?

11/29/10      Industry Note
US Chemicals - A peek at the peak

07/26/10      Industry Note
Secular shifts from shale

07/19/10      Industry Note
Expecting broad based earnings strength in Q2'10

07/12/10    Global Chemicals   
Global Chemicals - Bullish on ethane based economics

06/28/10      Industry Note
US Chemicals: Currency headwinds ahead?

05/25/10    Middle Eastern Chemicals   Industry Note
Sifing through the rubble and finding opportunities

05/18/10    Industry Note   Industry Note
Global Chemicals - The China Effect

05/10/10    US Chemicals   Industry Note
Could the capacity addition wave be a whimper

04/26/10    Industry Note   
Middle Eastern Chemicals

04/19/10    Industry Note   Industry Note
Expecting broad based earnings strength in Q1

03/03/10    Global Chemicals   Industry Note
Chemical Sector M&A

02/24/10    Middle Eastern Chemicals   Industry Note
Mixed feed, mixed economics, mixed sentiment

02/16/10    Industry Note   Industry Note
To LNG or not to LNG

12/16/09       Industry Initiation
Global Chemicals – The time is now!

Copyright 2009 - 2015 Alembic Global Advisors.
All rights reserved | Sitemap
built by learnerdesign.com

Alembic Global Advisors is an
Institutional Investor Research Boutique.
Not Intended for Retail Investors
Brokerage services offered through JonesTrading Institutional Services

Alembic Global Advisors
780 Third Avenue, 3rd floor
New York, NY 10017